Jim Jubak from MSN Money - Good Analyst
Who's next?
It's only logical to wonder after the 9% plunge in China's Shanghai stock market led to a global sell-off on Feb. 27. That ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) down 416 points on the day.
There are the usual suspects, of course:
The U.S. markets, if the crisis in the submortgage market spreads to the rest of the debt market.
Japan, if investors panic at signs that the economy might be slipping back toward recession after the latest interest rate increase.
Russia, if investors decide that the country's booming stock market -- up 51% in 2006 -- and state-controlled economy too closely resemble the Chinese market that just blew up.
The $345 trillion derivative market, if some of the math whizzes that carve up risk sent too much risk to the wrong investors.
But I've got another candidate: India.
It's as big as China. It's growing just about as fast. Its economy is in more danger of overheating. And it's more dependent on speculative hot money. The Indian stock market suffered through a 30% drop in May and June of 2006, so similar volatility in the days ahead is certainly a possibility. And the country looks like it's on the road to a genuine economic and political crisis.
And, of course, with the global financial markets as spooked as they are after the Feb. 27 meltdown in Shanghai and the subsequent global sell-off, any short-term blip in a major developing market such as India could set off big ripples across the globe.
In the long term, however, I think India might be the most attractive of all global stock markets: Its population is younger than China, its educational system is expanding and improving, and its companies are more focused on creating wealth for shareholders.
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